Probably Football

Matches

UEFA Europa League (International)

AC Milan vs Ferencvarosi TC

  1. AC Milan47%
  2. Draw21%
  3. Ferencvarosi TC32%

1.70 expected goals for AC Milan

1.38 expected goals for Ferencvarosi TC

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

AC Milan has the edge (47%), but not by much: a draw is at 21% and a Ferencvarosi TC win at 32%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Ferencvarosi TC attack, which scores 90% more goals than an average team. Next comes the AC Milan attack, which scores 89% more goals than an average team. It expects 3.1 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 56% chance, and both teams scoring, 52%. And about 9.5 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

AC Milan

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. AC Milan attack+89%
  3. Ferencvarosi TC defence−41%

Expected goals1.70

Ferencvarosi TC

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Ferencvarosi TC attack+90%
  2. AC Milan defence−47%

Expected goals1.38

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals95%
  2. Over 1.5 goals82%
  3. Over 2.5 goals56%
  4. Over 3.5 goals37%
  5. Over 4.5 goals20%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.5 expected

5.1 for AC Milan and 4.4 for Ferencvarosi TC

  1. Over 8.5 corners57%
  2. Over 9.5 corners46%
  3. Over 10.5 corners36%

Cards

3.8 expected

1.4 for AC Milan and 2.5 for Ferencvarosi TC

  1. Over 3.5 cards53%
  2. Over 4.5 cards34%
  3. Over 5.5 cards19%

Shots

26.5 expected

14.3 for AC Milan and 12.2 for Ferencvarosi TC

  1. Over 20.5 shots80%
  2. Over 22.5 shots70%
  3. Over 24.5 shots58%

Fouls

25.0 expected

11.6 for AC Milan and 13.4 for Ferencvarosi TC

  1. Over 20.5 fouls79%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls66%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls52%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.