Probably Football

Matches

UEFA Champions League (International)

Slavia Praha vs Arsenal

  1. Slavia Praha9%
  2. Draw15%
  3. Arsenal76%

0.52 expected goals for Slavia Praha

2.39 expected goals for Arsenal

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

The model makes Arsenal the clear favourite: 76% to win. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Arsenal defence, which lets in 74% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Arsenal attack, which scores 128% more goals than an average team. It expects 2.9 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 55% chance, and both teams scoring, 37%. And about 10.1 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Slavia Praha

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Slavia Praha attack+34%
  3. Arsenal defence−74%

Expected goals0.52

Arsenal

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Arsenal attack+128%
  2. Slavia Praha defence−23%

Expected goals2.39

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals94%
  2. Over 1.5 goals79%
  3. Over 2.5 goals55%
  4. Over 3.5 goals33%
  5. Over 4.5 goals17%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.1 expected

4.8 for Slavia Praha and 5.2 for Arsenal

  1. Over 8.5 corners63%
  2. Over 9.5 corners52%
  3. Over 10.5 corners42%

Cards

3.6 expected

1.5 for Slavia Praha and 2.1 for Arsenal

  1. Over 3.5 cards49%
  2. Over 4.5 cards30%
  3. Over 5.5 cards16%

Shots

28.7 expected

11.0 for Slavia Praha and 17.7 for Arsenal

  1. Over 20.5 shots86%
  2. Over 22.5 shots78%
  3. Over 24.5 shots68%

Fouls

23.5 expected

12.9 for Slavia Praha and 10.6 for Arsenal

  1. Over 20.5 fouls70%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls56%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls41%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.