Probably Football

Matches

UEFA Champions League (International)

Shakhtar Donetsk vs Sporting CP

  1. Shakhtar Donetsk28%
  2. Draw22%
  3. Sporting CP50%

1.08 expected goals for Shakhtar Donetsk

1.74 expected goals for Sporting CP

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Sporting CP has the edge (50%), but not by much: a draw is at 22% and a Shakhtar Donetsk win at 28%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Sporting CP attack, which scores 126% more goals than an average team. Next comes the Sporting CP defence, which lets in 52% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.8 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 54% chance, and both teams scoring, 51%. And about 9.2 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Shakhtar Donetsk

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Shakhtar Donetsk attack+49%
  3. Sporting CP defence−52%

Expected goals1.08

Sporting CP

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Sporting CP attack+126%
  2. Shakhtar Donetsk defence−43%

Expected goals1.74

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals93%
  2. Over 1.5 goals78%
  3. Over 2.5 goals54%
  4. Over 3.5 goals31%
  5. Over 4.5 goals16%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.2 expected

5.3 for Shakhtar Donetsk and 3.9 for Sporting CP

  1. Over 8.5 corners54%
  2. Over 9.5 corners43%
  3. Over 10.5 corners34%

Cards

4.7 expected

2.5 for Shakhtar Donetsk and 2.2 for Sporting CP

  1. Over 3.5 cards69%
  2. Over 4.5 cards50%
  3. Over 5.5 cards33%

Shots

26.0 expected

13.9 for Shakhtar Donetsk and 12.1 for Sporting CP

  1. Over 20.5 shots78%
  2. Over 22.5 shots68%
  3. Over 24.5 shots56%

Fouls

25.1 expected

12.6 for Shakhtar Donetsk and 12.5 for Sporting CP

  1. Over 20.5 fouls80%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls67%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls53%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.