Probably Football

Matches

UEFA Champions League (International)

Manchester United vs AS Roma

  1. Manchester United30%
  2. Draw19%
  3. AS Roma51%

1.53 expected goals for Manchester United

2.22 expected goals for AS Roma

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

AS Roma has the edge (51%), but not by much: a draw is at 19% and a Manchester United win at 30%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the AS Roma attack, which scores 198% more goals than an average team. Next comes the Manchester United attack, which scores 100% more goals than an average team. It expects 3.8 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 65% chance, and both teams scoring, 58%. And about 9.4 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Manchester United

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Manchester United attack+100%
  3. AS Roma defence−49%

Expected goals1.54

AS Roma

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. AS Roma attack+198%
  2. Manchester United defence−45%

Expected goals2.22

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals97%
  2. Over 1.5 goals89%
  3. Over 2.5 goals65%
  4. Over 3.5 goals52%
  5. Over 4.5 goals32%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.4 expected

5.1 for Manchester United and 4.3 for AS Roma

  1. Over 8.5 corners56%
  2. Over 9.5 corners46%
  3. Over 10.5 corners36%

Cards

4.2 expected

2.0 for Manchester United and 2.2 for AS Roma

  1. Over 3.5 cards61%
  2. Over 4.5 cards42%
  3. Over 5.5 cards25%

Shots

26.7 expected

12.3 for Manchester United and 14.4 for AS Roma

  1. Over 20.5 shots81%
  2. Over 22.5 shots71%
  3. Over 24.5 shots60%

Fouls

22.6 expected

10.4 for Manchester United and 12.2 for AS Roma

  1. Over 20.5 fouls65%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls49%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls35%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.