Probably Football

Matches

UEFA Champions League (International)

Lask Linz vs Slovan Bratislava

  1. Lask Linz52%
  2. Draw20%
  3. Slovan Bratislava28%

1.89 expected goals for Lask Linz

1.39 expected goals for Slovan Bratislava

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Lask Linz has the edge (52%), but not by much: a draw is at 20% and a Slovan Bratislava win at 28%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Lask Linz attack, which scores 43% more goals than an average team. Next comes the Slovan Bratislava attack, which scores 16% more goals than an average team. It expects 3.3 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 59% chance, and both teams scoring, 56%. And about 9.7 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Lask Linz

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Lask Linz attack+43%
  3. Slovan Bratislava defence−13%

Expected goals1.88

Slovan Bratislava

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Slovan Bratislava attack+16%
  2. Lask Linz defence−12%

Expected goals1.39

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals96%
  2. Over 1.5 goals84%
  3. Over 2.5 goals59%
  4. Over 3.5 goals41%
  5. Over 4.5 goals23%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.7 expected

5.1 for Lask Linz and 4.6 for Slovan Bratislava

  1. Over 8.5 corners59%
  2. Over 9.5 corners48%
  3. Over 10.5 corners39%

Cards

3.9 expected

1.7 for Lask Linz and 2.2 for Slovan Bratislava

  1. Over 3.5 cards54%
  2. Over 4.5 cards35%
  3. Over 5.5 cards20%

Shots

32.9 expected

20.3 for Lask Linz and 12.7 for Slovan Bratislava

  1. Over 20.5 shots94%
  2. Over 22.5 shots90%
  3. Over 24.5 shots83%

Fouls

22.9 expected

11.8 for Lask Linz and 11.1 for Slovan Bratislava

  1. Over 20.5 fouls67%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls52%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls37%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.