Probably Football

Matches

UEFA Champions League (International)

Galatasaray vs VfB Stuttgart

  1. Galatasaray34%
  2. Draw20%
  3. VfB Stuttgart46%

1.58 expected goals for Galatasaray

2.05 expected goals for VfB Stuttgart

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

VfB Stuttgart has the edge (46%), but not by much: a draw is at 20% and a Galatasaray win at 34%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the VfB Stuttgart attack, which scores 117% more goals than an average team. Next comes the Galatasaray attack, which scores 103% more goals than an average team. It expects 3.6 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 63% chance, and both teams scoring, 58%. And about 9.9 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Galatasaray

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Galatasaray attack+103%
  3. VfB Stuttgart defence−49%

Expected goals1.58

VfB Stuttgart

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. VfB Stuttgart attack+117%
  2. Galatasaray defence−31%

Expected goals2.05

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals97%
  2. Over 1.5 goals88%
  3. Over 2.5 goals63%
  4. Over 3.5 goals49%
  5. Over 4.5 goals30%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.9 expected

4.8 for Galatasaray and 5.1 for VfB Stuttgart

  1. Over 8.5 corners60%
  2. Over 9.5 corners50%
  3. Over 10.5 corners40%

Cards

4.2 expected

1.9 for Galatasaray and 2.3 for VfB Stuttgart

  1. Over 3.5 cards60%
  2. Over 4.5 cards40%
  3. Over 5.5 cards24%

Shots

30.7 expected

12.8 for Galatasaray and 17.9 for VfB Stuttgart

  1. Over 20.5 shots91%
  2. Over 22.5 shots85%
  3. Over 24.5 shots77%

Fouls

24.3 expected

11.2 for Galatasaray and 13.1 for VfB Stuttgart

  1. Over 20.5 fouls75%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls61%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls47%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.