Probably Football

Matches

UEFA Champions League (International)

Feyenoord vs Inter

  1. Feyenoord38%
  2. Draw19%
  3. Inter43%

1.75 expected goals for Feyenoord

2.04 expected goals for Inter

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

A very open match: no result goes above 43%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Inter attack, which scores 156% more goals than an average team. Next comes the Feyenoord attack, which scores 119% more goals than an average team. It expects 3.8 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 65% chance, and both teams scoring, 58%. And about 9.6 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Feyenoord

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Feyenoord attack+119%
  3. Inter defence−47%

Expected goals1.76

Inter

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Inter attack+156%
  2. Feyenoord defence−41%

Expected goals2.04

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals97%
  2. Over 1.5 goals90%
  3. Over 2.5 goals65%
  4. Over 3.5 goals53%
  5. Over 4.5 goals33%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.6 expected

5.1 for Feyenoord and 4.5 for Inter

  1. Over 8.5 corners58%
  2. Over 9.5 corners47%
  3. Over 10.5 corners37%

Cards

4.5 expected

2.1 for Feyenoord and 2.4 for Inter

  1. Over 3.5 cards66%
  2. Over 4.5 cards47%
  3. Over 5.5 cards30%

Shots

31.2 expected

14.3 for Feyenoord and 16.9 for Inter

  1. Over 20.5 shots92%
  2. Over 22.5 shots86%
  3. Over 24.5 shots79%

Fouls

22.2 expected

10.9 for Feyenoord and 11.3 for Inter

  1. Over 20.5 fouls61%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls46%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls31%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.