UEFA Champions League (International)
FC Porto vs Napoli
- FC Porto56%
- Draw23%
- Napoli21%
1.59 expected goals for FC Porto
0.89 expected goals for Napoli
Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.
In short
The model makes FC Porto the clear favourite: 56% to win. The biggest factor in these numbers is the FC Porto defence, which lets in 66% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the FC Porto attack, which scores 98% more goals than an average team. It expects 2.5 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 49% chance, and both teams scoring, 46%. And about 9.0 corners.
Who do you think wins?
Why?
The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.
FC Porto
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Playing at home+11%
- FC Porto attack+98%
- Napoli defence−47%
Expected goals1.59
Napoli
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Napoli attack+90%
- FC Porto defence−66%
Expected goals0.88
Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.
Goals
- Over 0.5 goals91%
- Over 1.5 goals71%
- Over 2.5 goals49%
- Over 3.5 goals24%
- Over 4.5 goals10%
- Both teams score46%
- FC Porto or draw79%
- Draw or Napoli44%
- No draw78%
Corners, cards and more
These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.
Corners
9.0 expected
5.1 for FC Porto and 3.9 for Napoli
- Over 8.5 corners52%
- Over 9.5 corners41%
- Over 10.5 corners31%
Cards
3.8 expected
1.7 for FC Porto and 2.2 for Napoli
- Over 3.5 cards53%
- Over 4.5 cards34%
- Over 5.5 cards19%
Shots
28.6 expected
16.7 for FC Porto and 11.9 for Napoli
- Over 20.5 shots87%
- Over 22.5 shots79%
- Over 24.5 shots69%
Fouls
22.2 expected
10.9 for FC Porto and 11.2 for Napoli
- Over 20.5 fouls61%
- Over 22.5 fouls46%
- Over 24.5 fouls31%
Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.