Probably Football

Matches

UEFA Champions League (International)

Bodo/Glimt vs Lille

  1. Bodo/Glimt49%
  2. Draw23%
  3. Lille28%

1.52 expected goals for Bodo/Glimt

1.13 expected goals for Lille

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Bodo/Glimt has the edge (49%), but not by much: a draw is at 23% and a Lille win at 28%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Bodo/Glimt attack, which scores 121% more goals than an average team. Next comes the Lille defence, which lets in 55% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.6 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 51% chance, and both teams scoring, 50%. And about 9.1 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Bodo/Glimt

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Bodo/Glimt attack+121%
  3. Lille defence−55%

Expected goals1.52

Lille

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Lille attack+46%
  2. Bodo/Glimt defence−43%

Expected goals1.13

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals92%
  2. Over 1.5 goals75%
  3. Over 2.5 goals51%
  4. Over 3.5 goals27%
  5. Over 4.5 goals13%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.1 expected

5.5 for Bodo/Glimt and 3.6 for Lille

  1. Over 8.5 corners53%
  2. Over 9.5 corners42%
  3. Over 10.5 corners32%

Cards

3.8 expected

1.4 for Bodo/Glimt and 2.4 for Lille

  1. Over 3.5 cards52%
  2. Over 4.5 cards32%
  3. Over 5.5 cards18%

Shots

27.4 expected

18.4 for Bodo/Glimt and 9.0 for Lille

  1. Over 20.5 shots82%
  2. Over 22.5 shots73%
  3. Over 24.5 shots62%

Fouls

22.0 expected

10.9 for Bodo/Glimt and 11.0 for Lille

  1. Over 20.5 fouls60%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls44%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls30%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.