Probably Football

Matches

UEFA Champions League (International)

Barcelona vs Aston Villa

  1. Barcelona67%
  2. Draw15%
  3. Aston Villa18%

3.03 expected goals for Barcelona

1.63 expected goals for Aston Villa

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

The model makes Barcelona the clear favourite: 67% to win. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Barcelona attack, which scores 344% more goals than an average team. Next comes the Aston Villa attack, which scores 159% more goals than an average team. It expects 4.7 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 74% chance, and both teams scoring, 60%. And about 9.9 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Barcelona

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Barcelona attack+344%
  3. Aston Villa defence−55%

Expected goals3.03

Aston Villa

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Aston Villa attack+159%
  2. Barcelona defence−54%

Expected goals1.63

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals99%
  2. Over 1.5 goals95%
  3. Over 2.5 goals74%
  4. Over 3.5 goals68%
  5. Over 4.5 goals50%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.9 expected

5.8 for Barcelona and 4.0 for Aston Villa

  1. Over 8.5 corners60%
  2. Over 9.5 corners50%
  3. Over 10.5 corners40%

Cards

4.2 expected

1.9 for Barcelona and 2.3 for Aston Villa

  1. Over 3.5 cards61%
  2. Over 4.5 cards41%
  3. Over 5.5 cards25%

Shots

30.0 expected

19.7 for Barcelona and 10.3 for Aston Villa

  1. Over 20.5 shots89%
  2. Over 22.5 shots82%
  3. Over 24.5 shots73%

Fouls

23.4 expected

11.4 for Barcelona and 12.0 for Aston Villa

  1. Over 20.5 fouls70%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls55%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls40%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.