Probably Football

Matches

UEFA Champions League (International)

AEK Athens FC vs Real Madrid

  1. AEK Athens FC12%
  2. Draw13%
  3. Real Madrid75%

0.88 expected goals for AEK Athens FC

2.96 expected goals for Real Madrid

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

The model makes Real Madrid the clear favourite: 75% to win. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Real Madrid attack, which scores 196% more goals than an average team. Next comes the Real Madrid defence, which lets in 60% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 3.8 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 66% chance, and both teams scoring, 52%. And about 9.2 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

AEK Athens FC

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. AEK Athens FC attack+48%
  3. Real Madrid defence−60%

Expected goals0.88

Real Madrid

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Real Madrid attack+196%
  2. AEK Athens FC defence−27%

Expected goals2.96

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals98%
  2. Over 1.5 goals90%
  3. Over 2.5 goals66%
  4. Over 3.5 goals53%
  5. Over 4.5 goals34%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.2 expected

5.0 for AEK Athens FC and 4.2 for Real Madrid

  1. Over 8.5 corners54%
  2. Over 9.5 corners44%
  3. Over 10.5 corners34%

Cards

4.4 expected

2.0 for AEK Athens FC and 2.4 for Real Madrid

  1. Over 3.5 cards64%
  2. Over 4.5 cards44%
  3. Over 5.5 cards28%

Shots

27.0 expected

14.8 for AEK Athens FC and 12.3 for Real Madrid

  1. Over 20.5 shots82%
  2. Over 22.5 shots72%
  3. Over 24.5 shots61%

Fouls

25.3 expected

13.8 for AEK Athens FC and 11.5 for Real Madrid

  1. Over 20.5 fouls80%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls68%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls54%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.