Probably Football

Matches

Division Profesional - Clausura (Paraguay)

Libertad Asuncion vs Cerro Porteno

  1. Libertad Asuncion31%
  2. Draw30%
  3. Cerro Porteno39%

1.06 expected goals for Libertad Asuncion

1.23 expected goals for Cerro Porteno

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Cerro Porteno has the edge (39%), but not by much: a draw is at 30% and a Libertad Asuncion win at 31%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Cerro Porteno defence, which lets in 48% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Libertad Asuncion defence, which lets in 35% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.3 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 43% chance, and both teams scoring, 50%. And about 10.0 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Libertad Asuncion

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Libertad Asuncion attack+36%
  3. Cerro Porteno defence−48%

Expected goals1.06

Cerro Porteno

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Cerro Porteno attack+39%
  2. Libertad Asuncion defence−35%

Expected goals1.23

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals89%
  2. Over 1.5 goals67%
  3. Over 2.5 goals43%
  4. Over 3.5 goals20%
  5. Over 4.5 goals8%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.0 expected

4.7 for Libertad Asuncion and 5.3 for Cerro Porteno

  1. Over 8.5 corners62%
  2. Over 9.5 corners52%
  3. Over 10.5 corners42%

Cards

4.4 expected

2.2 for Libertad Asuncion and 2.2 for Cerro Porteno

  1. Over 3.5 cards64%
  2. Over 4.5 cards45%
  3. Over 5.5 cards28%

Shots

27.5 expected

13.9 for Libertad Asuncion and 13.7 for Cerro Porteno

  1. Over 20.5 shots83%
  2. Over 22.5 shots75%
  3. Over 24.5 shots64%

Fouls

23.9 expected

12.3 for Libertad Asuncion and 11.6 for Cerro Porteno

  1. Over 20.5 fouls73%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls59%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls44%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.