Probably Football

Matches

Division Profesional - Clausura (Paraguay)

2 de Mayo vs Sportivo Trinidense

  1. 2 de Mayo26%
  2. Draw28%
  3. Sportivo Trinidense46%

0.99 expected goals for 2 de Mayo

1.48 expected goals for Sportivo Trinidense

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Sportivo Trinidense has the edge (46%), but not by much: a draw is at 28% and a 2 de Mayo win at 26%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Sportivo Trinidense defence, which lets in 39% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Sportivo Trinidense attack, which scores 54% more goals than an average team. It expects 2.5 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 46% chance, and both teams scoring, 51%. And about 10.2 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

2 de Mayo

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. 2 de Mayo attack+7%
  3. Sportivo Trinidense defence−39%

Expected goals0.99

Sportivo Trinidense

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Sportivo Trinidense attack+54%
  2. 2 de Mayo defence−30%

Expected goals1.48

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals91%
  2. Over 1.5 goals71%
  3. Over 2.5 goals46%
  4. Over 3.5 goals23%
  5. Over 4.5 goals10%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.2 expected

5.1 for 2 de Mayo and 5.0 for Sportivo Trinidense

  1. Over 8.5 corners64%
  2. Over 9.5 corners53%
  3. Over 10.5 corners43%

Cards

4.4 expected

2.2 for 2 de Mayo and 2.3 for Sportivo Trinidense

  1. Over 3.5 cards65%
  2. Over 4.5 cards46%
  3. Over 5.5 cards29%

Shots

26.0 expected

13.2 for 2 de Mayo and 12.8 for Sportivo Trinidense

  1. Over 20.5 shots78%
  2. Over 22.5 shots67%
  3. Over 24.5 shots56%

Fouls

23.1 expected

11.1 for 2 de Mayo and 12.0 for Sportivo Trinidense

  1. Over 20.5 fouls68%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls53%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls38%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.