Probably Football

Matches

Division Profesional - Clausura (Paraguay)

Sportivo Trinidense vs Rubio NU

  1. Sportivo Trinidense58%
  2. Draw25%
  3. Rubio NU17%

1.78 expected goals for Sportivo Trinidense

0.73 expected goals for Rubio NU

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

The model makes Sportivo Trinidense the clear favourite: 58% to win. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Sportivo Trinidense defence, which lets in 46% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Sportivo Trinidense attack, which scores 53% more goals than an average team. It expects 2.5 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 46% chance, and both teams scoring, 49%. And about 9.9 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Sportivo Trinidense

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Sportivo Trinidense attack+53%
  3. Rubio NU defence−23%

Expected goals1.78

Rubio NU

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Rubio NU attack−2%
  2. Sportivo Trinidense defence−46%

Expected goals0.73

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals91%
  2. Over 1.5 goals72%
  3. Over 2.5 goals46%
  4. Over 3.5 goals24%
  5. Over 4.5 goals11%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.9 expected

5.5 for Sportivo Trinidense and 4.4 for Rubio NU

  1. Over 8.5 corners61%
  2. Over 9.5 corners51%
  3. Over 10.5 corners41%

Cards

4.2 expected

2.0 for Sportivo Trinidense and 2.3 for Rubio NU

  1. Over 3.5 cards61%
  2. Over 4.5 cards42%
  3. Over 5.5 cards26%

Shots

27.6 expected

15.7 for Sportivo Trinidense and 11.8 for Rubio NU

  1. Over 20.5 shots83%
  2. Over 22.5 shots75%
  3. Over 24.5 shots64%

Fouls

22.9 expected

11.6 for Sportivo Trinidense and 11.3 for Rubio NU

  1. Over 20.5 fouls66%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls51%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls36%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.