Probably Football

Matches

Division Profesional - Clausura (Paraguay)

Deportivo Recoleta vs Sportivo Ameliano

  1. Deportivo Recoleta35%
  2. Draw28%
  3. Sportivo Ameliano37%

1.34 expected goals for Deportivo Recoleta

1.34 expected goals for Sportivo Ameliano

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

A very open match: no result goes above 37%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Sportivo Ameliano defence, which lets in 32% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Deportivo Recoleta attack, which scores 32% more goals than an average team. It expects 2.7 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 48% chance, and both teams scoring, 52%. And about 10.5 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Deportivo Recoleta

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Deportivo Recoleta attack+32%
  3. Sportivo Ameliano defence−32%

Expected goals1.34

Sportivo Ameliano

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Sportivo Ameliano attack+21%
  2. Deportivo Recoleta defence−19%

Expected goals1.34

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals93%
  2. Over 1.5 goals75%
  3. Over 2.5 goals48%
  4. Over 3.5 goals28%
  5. Over 4.5 goals13%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.5 expected

5.8 for Deportivo Recoleta and 4.7 for Sportivo Ameliano

  1. Over 8.5 corners66%
  2. Over 9.5 corners56%
  3. Over 10.5 corners47%

Cards

4.1 expected

1.9 for Deportivo Recoleta and 2.3 for Sportivo Ameliano

  1. Over 3.5 cards59%
  2. Over 4.5 cards40%
  3. Over 5.5 cards24%

Shots

27.4 expected

14.6 for Deportivo Recoleta and 12.8 for Sportivo Ameliano

  1. Over 20.5 shots83%
  2. Over 22.5 shots74%
  3. Over 24.5 shots64%

Fouls

23.1 expected

12.4 for Deportivo Recoleta and 10.6 for Sportivo Ameliano

  1. Over 20.5 fouls68%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls52%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls37%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.