Club Guarani vs Nacional Asuncion

Club Guarani27%
Draw31%
Nacional Asuncion42%

0.79 expected goals for Club Guarani

1.12 expected goals for Nacional Asuncion

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

Nacional Asuncion has the edge (42%), but not by much: a draw is at 31% and a Club Guarani win at 27%. It expects 1.9 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 38% chance, and both teams scoring, 44%. And about 10.4 corners.

Goals

Over 0.5 goals84%It happened
Over 1.5 goals57%It happened
Over 2.5 goals38%It did not happen
Over 3.5 goals13%It did not happen
Over 4.5 goals4%It did not happen

Both teams score44%
Club Guarani or draw58%
Draw or Nacional Asuncion73%
No draw69%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.4 expected

6.0 for Club Guarani and 4.4 for Nacional Asuncion

Over 8.5 corners66%
Over 9.5 corners56%
Over 10.5 corners46%

Cards

4.0 expected

1.9 for Club Guarani and 2.1 for Nacional Asuncion

Over 3.5 cards56%
Over 4.5 cards37%
Over 5.5 cards21%

Shots

27.6 expected

16.9 for Club Guarani and 10.7 for Nacional Asuncion

Over 20.5 shots84%
Over 22.5 shots75%
Over 24.5 shots64%

Fouls

23.0 expected

10.9 for Club Guarani and 12.1 for Nacional Asuncion

Over 20.5 fouls67%
Over 22.5 fouls52%
Over 24.5 fouls37%

Saved before kickoff, on 21 October at 07:01 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.