Probably Football

Matches

Liga Premier Serie A (Mexico)

FC Santiago vs Halcones Negros

  1. FC Santiago63%
  2. Draw21%
  3. Halcones Negros16%

2.11 expected goals for FC Santiago

1.13 expected goals for Halcones Negros

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

The model makes FC Santiago the clear favourite: 63% to win. The biggest factor in these numbers is the FC Santiago defence, which lets in 31% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the FC Santiago attack, which scores 37% more goals than an average team. It expects 3.2 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 58% chance, and both teams scoring, 52%.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

FC Santiago

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. FC Santiago attack+37%
  3. Halcones Negros defence+2%

Expected goals2.11

Halcones Negros

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Halcones Negros attack+20%
  2. FC Santiago defence−31%

Expected goals1.13

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals96%
  2. Over 1.5 goals84%
  3. Over 2.5 goals58%
  4. Over 3.5 goals41%
  5. Over 4.5 goals23%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.