Probably Football

Matches

Liga Premier Serie A (Mexico)

Halcones Negros vs Real Apodaca

  1. Halcones Negros49%
  2. Draw23%
  3. Real Apodaca28%

1.79 expected goals for Halcones Negros

1.50 expected goals for Real Apodaca

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Halcones Negros has the edge (49%), but not by much: a draw is at 23% and a Real Apodaca win at 28%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Halcones Negros attack, which scores 23% more goals than an average team. It expects 3.3 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 58% chance, and both teams scoring, 54%.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Halcones Negros

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Halcones Negros attack+23%
  3. Real Apodaca defence−4%

Expected goals1.79

Real Apodaca

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Real Apodaca attack+3%
  2. Halcones Negros defence+7%

Expected goals1.50

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals96%
  2. Over 1.5 goals85%
  3. Over 2.5 goals58%
  4. Over 3.5 goals42%
  5. Over 4.5 goals24%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.