Probably Football

Matches

Liga Premier Serie A (Mexico)

Acambaro vs Vaqueros Reynosa

  1. Acambaro65%
  2. Draw18%
  3. Vaqueros Reynosa17%

2.44 expected goals for Acambaro

1.35 expected goals for Vaqueros Reynosa

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

The model makes Acambaro the clear favourite: 65% to win. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Acambaro attack, which scores 53% more goals than an average team. It expects 3.8 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 66% chance, and both teams scoring, 54%.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Acambaro

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Acambaro attack+53%
  3. Vaqueros Reynosa defence+5%

Expected goals2.44

Vaqueros Reynosa

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Vaqueros Reynosa attack+6%
  2. Acambaro defence−6%

Expected goals1.35

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals97%
  2. Over 1.5 goals90%
  3. Over 2.5 goals66%
  4. Over 3.5 goals53%
  5. Over 4.5 goals33%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.