Probably Football

Matches

Liga Premier Serie A (Mexico)

Calor de San Pedro vs Correcaminos UAT II

  1. Calor de San Pedro46%
  2. Draw26%
  3. Correcaminos UAT II28%

1.40 expected goals for Calor de San Pedro

1.19 expected goals for Correcaminos UAT II

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Calor de San Pedro has the edge (46%), but not by much: a draw is at 26% and a Correcaminos UAT II win at 28%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Correcaminos UAT II attack, which scores 22% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Correcaminos UAT II defence, which lets in 16% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.6 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 48% chance, and both teams scoring, 50%.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Calor de San Pedro

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Calor de San Pedro attack+10%
  3. Correcaminos UAT II defence−16%

Expected goals1.40

Correcaminos UAT II

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Correcaminos UAT II attack−22%
  2. Calor de San Pedro defence+12%

Expected goals1.19

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals92%
  2. Over 1.5 goals74%
  3. Over 2.5 goals48%
  4. Over 3.5 goals26%
  5. Over 4.5 goals12%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.