Probably Football

Matches

Liga Premier Serie A (Mexico)

Saturday 31 October, 17:00

Real Refineros vs Guerreros

  1. Real Refineros34%
  2. Draw22%
  3. Guerreros44%

1.47 expected goals for Real Refineros

1.87 expected goals for Guerreros

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Guerreros has the edge (44%), but not by much: a draw is at 22% and a Real Refineros win at 34%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Real Refineros defence, which lets in 37% more goals than an average team. It expects 3.3 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 59% chance, and both teams scoring, 54%.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Real Refineros

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Real Refineros attack0%
  3. Guerreros defence−2%

Expected goals1.47

Guerreros

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Guerreros attack0%
  2. Real Refineros defence+37%

Expected goals1.87

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals96%
  2. Over 1.5 goals85%
  3. Over 2.5 goals59%
  4. Over 3.5 goals43%
  5. Over 4.5 goals25%

Saved before kickoff, on 30 October at 07:11 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.