Saturday 31 October, 17:00
Artesanos Metepec vs Atlético Saltillo
- Artesanos Metepec57%
- Draw25%
- Atlético Saltillo18%
1.64 expected goals for Artesanos Metepec
0.94 expected goals for Atlético Saltillo
Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.
In short
The model makes Artesanos Metepec the clear favourite: 57% to win. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Atlético Saltillo attack, which scores 17% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Artesanos Metepec defence, which lets in 17% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.6 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 48% chance, and both teams scoring, 48%.
Who do you think wins?
Why?
The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.
Artesanos Metepec
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Playing at home+11%
- Artesanos Metepec attack−1%
- Atlético Saltillo defence+9%
Expected goals1.64
Atlético Saltillo
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Atlético Saltillo attack−17%
- Artesanos Metepec defence−17%
Expected goals0.94
Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.
Goals
- Over 0.5 goals92%
- Over 1.5 goals74%
- Over 2.5 goals48%
- Over 3.5 goals26%
- Over 4.5 goals12%
- Both teams score48%
- Artesanos Metepec or draw82%
- Draw or Atlético Saltillo43%
- No draw75%
Saved before kickoff, on 30 October at 07:11 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.