Probably Football

Matches

Liga Premier Serie A (Mexico)

Saturday 31 October, 16:30

Ciervos vs FC Santiago

  1. Ciervos4%
  2. Draw2%
  3. FC Santiago94%

0.70 expected goals for Ciervos

3.64 expected goals for FC Santiago

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

The model makes FC Santiago the clear favourite: 94% to win. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Ciervos defence, which lets in 90% more goals than an average team. Next comes the Ciervos attack, which scores 34% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 4.3 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 73% chance, and both teams scoring, 48%.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Ciervos

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Ciervos attack−34%
  3. FC Santiago defence−29%

Expected goals0.70

FC Santiago

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. FC Santiago attack+40%
  2. Ciervos defence+90%

Expected goals3.64

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals99%
  2. Over 1.5 goals93%
  3. Over 2.5 goals73%
  4. Over 3.5 goals63%
  5. Over 4.5 goals44%

Saved before kickoff, on 30 October at 07:11 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.