Probably Football

Matches

Liga Premier Serie A (Mexico)

Saturday 31 October, 11:00

Cañoneros Marina vs Acatlan

  1. Cañoneros Marina12%
  2. Draw7%
  3. Acatlan81%

1.41 expected goals for Cañoneros Marina

3.56 expected goals for Acatlan

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

The model makes Acatlan the clear favourite: 81% to win. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Cañoneros Marina defence, which lets in 97% more goals than an average team. Next comes the Cañoneros Marina attack, which scores 38% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 5.0 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 80% chance, and both teams scoring, 55%.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Cañoneros Marina

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Cañoneros Marina attack−38%
  3. Acatlan defence+52%

Expected goals1.41

Acatlan

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Acatlan attack+33%
  2. Cañoneros Marina defence+97%

Expected goals3.56

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals99%
  2. Over 1.5 goals96%
  3. Over 2.5 goals80%
  4. Over 3.5 goals73%
  5. Over 4.5 goals55%

Saved before kickoff, on 29 October at 23:05 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.