Probably Football

Matches

AFC Champions League Two (International)

Kuching FA vs Gangwon FC

  1. Kuching FA39%
  2. Draw26%
  3. Gangwon FC35%

1.17 expected goals for Kuching FA

1.10 expected goals for Gangwon FC

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

A very open match: no result goes above 39%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Gangwon FC attack, which scores 18% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Gangwon FC defence, which lets in 17% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.3 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 48% chance, and both teams scoring, 54%. And about 9.4 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Kuching FA

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Kuching FA attack−7%
  3. Gangwon FC defence−17%

Expected goals1.17

Gangwon FC

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Gangwon FC attack−18%
  2. Kuching FA defence−1%

Expected goals1.10

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals89%
  2. Over 1.5 goals67%
  3. Over 2.5 goals48%
  4. Over 3.5 goals20%
  5. Over 4.5 goals8%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.4 expected

4.4 for Kuching FA and 5.0 for Gangwon FC

  1. Over 8.5 corners56%
  2. Over 9.5 corners45%
  3. Over 10.5 corners35%

Cards

3.9 expected

1.5 for Kuching FA and 2.3 for Gangwon FC

  1. Over 3.5 cards54%
  2. Over 4.5 cards35%
  3. Over 5.5 cards20%

Shots

22.0 expected

11.1 for Kuching FA and 10.9 for Gangwon FC

  1. Over 20.5 shots57%
  2. Over 22.5 shots44%
  3. Over 24.5 shots32%

Fouls

29.8 expected

14.9 for Kuching FA and 14.8 for Gangwon FC

  1. Over 20.5 fouls95%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls89%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls81%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.