Probably Football

Matches

AFC Champions League Two (International)

Machida Zelvia vs Shanghai Shenhua

  1. Machida Zelvia73%
  2. Draw18%
  3. Shanghai Shenhua9%

1.93 expected goals for Machida Zelvia

0.59 expected goals for Shanghai Shenhua

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

The model makes Machida Zelvia the clear favourite: 73% to win. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Machida Zelvia defence, which lets in 51% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Machida Zelvia attack, which scores 34% more goals than an average team. It expects 2.5 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 50% chance, and both teams scoring, 53%. And about 10.0 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Machida Zelvia

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Machida Zelvia attack+34%
  3. Shanghai Shenhua defence−5%

Expected goals1.93

Shanghai Shenhua

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Shanghai Shenhua attack−12%
  2. Machida Zelvia defence−51%

Expected goals0.59

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals92%
  2. Over 1.5 goals72%
  3. Over 2.5 goals50%
  4. Over 3.5 goals25%
  5. Over 4.5 goals11%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.0 expected

6.1 for Machida Zelvia and 4.0 for Shanghai Shenhua

  1. Over 8.5 corners62%
  2. Over 9.5 corners52%
  3. Over 10.5 corners42%

Cards

3.8 expected

1.4 for Machida Zelvia and 2.4 for Shanghai Shenhua

  1. Over 3.5 cards52%
  2. Over 4.5 cards32%
  3. Over 5.5 cards18%

Shots

25.1 expected

15.1 for Machida Zelvia and 10.0 for Shanghai Shenhua

  1. Over 20.5 shots74%
  2. Over 22.5 shots63%
  3. Over 24.5 shots51%

Fouls

22.1 expected

11.0 for Machida Zelvia and 11.2 for Shanghai Shenhua

  1. Over 20.5 fouls61%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls45%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls31%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.