Probably Football

Matches

AFC Champions League Two (International)

Home United vs Adelaide United

  1. Home United55%
  2. Draw23%
  3. Adelaide United22%

1.74 expected goals for Home United

1.07 expected goals for Adelaide United

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

The model makes Home United the clear favourite: 55% to win. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Home United defence, which lets in 19% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Home United attack, which scores 17% more goals than an average team. It expects 2.8 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 52% chance, and both teams scoring, 54%. And about 9.4 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Home United

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Home United attack+17%
  3. Adelaide United defence−2%

Expected goals1.74

Adelaide United

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Adelaide United attack−3%
  2. Home United defence−19%

Expected goals1.07

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals93%
  2. Over 1.5 goals78%
  3. Over 2.5 goals52%
  4. Over 3.5 goals31%
  5. Over 4.5 goals15%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.4 expected

5.4 for Home United and 4.0 for Adelaide United

  1. Over 8.5 corners55%
  2. Over 9.5 corners45%
  3. Over 10.5 corners35%

Cards

4.1 expected

1.6 for Home United and 2.5 for Adelaide United

  1. Over 3.5 cards58%
  2. Over 4.5 cards39%
  3. Over 5.5 cards23%

Shots

27.7 expected

16.6 for Home United and 11.1 for Adelaide United

  1. Over 20.5 shots84%
  2. Over 22.5 shots75%
  3. Over 24.5 shots64%

Fouls

20.4 expected

9.6 for Home United and 10.8 for Adelaide United

  1. Over 20.5 fouls48%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls32%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls20%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.