Probably Football

Matches

AFC Champions League Two (International)

Al Taawon vs Al Faisaly

  1. Al Taawon60%
  2. Draw23%
  3. Al Faisaly17%

1.75 expected goals for Al Taawon

0.91 expected goals for Al Faisaly

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

The model makes Al Taawon the clear favourite: 60% to win. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Al Taawon defence, which lets in 31% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.7 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 50% chance, and both teams scoring, 54%. And about 10.0 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Al Taawon

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Al Taawon attack+10%
  3. Al Faisaly defence+5%

Expected goals1.75

Al Faisaly

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Al Faisaly attack−4%
  2. Al Taawon defence−31%

Expected goals0.91

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals92%
  2. Over 1.5 goals75%
  3. Over 2.5 goals50%
  4. Over 3.5 goals28%
  5. Over 4.5 goals13%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.0 expected

5.3 for Al Taawon and 4.6 for Al Faisaly

  1. Over 8.5 corners61%
  2. Over 9.5 corners51%
  3. Over 10.5 corners41%

Cards

4.3 expected

2.0 for Al Taawon and 2.3 for Al Faisaly

  1. Over 3.5 cards62%
  2. Over 4.5 cards43%
  3. Over 5.5 cards26%

Shots

24.4 expected

12.7 for Al Taawon and 11.7 for Al Faisaly

  1. Over 20.5 shots71%
  2. Over 22.5 shots59%
  3. Over 24.5 shots47%

Fouls

22.6 expected

10.4 for Al Taawon and 12.2 for Al Faisaly

  1. Over 20.5 fouls64%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls49%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls34%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.