Probably Football

Matches

AFC Champions League Two (International)

Muharraq vs Al-Jazira

  1. Muharraq26%
  2. Draw24%
  3. Al-Jazira50%

1.14 expected goals for Muharraq

1.61 expected goals for Al-Jazira

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Al-Jazira has the edge (50%), but not by much: a draw is at 24% and a Muharraq win at 26%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Al-Jazira defence, which lets in 30% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Al-Jazira attack, which scores 35% more goals than an average team. It expects 2.7 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 51% chance, and both teams scoring, 54%. And about 9.4 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Muharraq

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Muharraq attack+8%
  3. Al-Jazira defence−30%

Expected goals1.14

Al-Jazira

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Al-Jazira attack+35%
  2. Muharraq defence−12%

Expected goals1.61

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals93%
  2. Over 1.5 goals77%
  3. Over 2.5 goals51%
  4. Over 3.5 goals30%
  5. Over 4.5 goals14%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.4 expected

4.5 for Muharraq and 4.9 for Al-Jazira

  1. Over 8.5 corners56%
  2. Over 9.5 corners46%
  3. Over 10.5 corners36%

Cards

3.8 expected

1.7 for Muharraq and 2.1 for Al-Jazira

  1. Over 3.5 cards52%
  2. Over 4.5 cards33%
  3. Over 5.5 cards18%

Shots

28.1 expected

10.6 for Muharraq and 17.5 for Al-Jazira

  1. Over 20.5 shots84%
  2. Over 22.5 shots75%
  3. Over 24.5 shots65%

Fouls

25.6 expected

13.8 for Muharraq and 11.8 for Al-Jazira

  1. Over 20.5 fouls82%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls70%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls56%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.