AFC Champions League Two (International)
Al Wahda FC vs Khalidiya
- Al Wahda FC52%
- Draw25%
- Khalidiya23%
1.46 expected goals for Al Wahda FC
0.94 expected goals for Khalidiya
Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.
In short
Al Wahda FC has the edge (52%), but not by much: a draw is at 25% and a Khalidiya win at 23%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Al Wahda FC defence, which lets in 29% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.4 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 49% chance, and both teams scoring, 54%. And about 8.5 corners.
Who do you think wins?
Why?
The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.
Al Wahda FC
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Playing at home+11%
- Al Wahda FC attack+7%
- Khalidiya defence−9%
Expected goals1.46
Khalidiya
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Khalidiya attack−2%
- Al Wahda FC defence−29%
Expected goals0.94
Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.
Goals
- Over 0.5 goals90%
- Over 1.5 goals70%
- Over 2.5 goals49%
- Over 3.5 goals22%
- Over 4.5 goals10%
- Both teams score54%
- Al Wahda FC or draw77%
- Draw or Khalidiya48%
- No draw75%
Corners, cards and more
These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.
Corners
8.5 expected
4.4 for Al Wahda FC and 4.1 for Khalidiya
- Over 8.5 corners46%
- Over 9.5 corners36%
- Over 10.5 corners26%
Cards
4.0 expected
1.8 for Al Wahda FC and 2.3 for Khalidiya
- Over 3.5 cards58%
- Over 4.5 cards38%
- Over 5.5 cards22%
Shots
25.7 expected
14.2 for Al Wahda FC and 11.5 for Khalidiya
- Over 20.5 shots77%
- Over 22.5 shots66%
- Over 24.5 shots54%
Fouls
20.1 expected
10.3 for Al Wahda FC and 9.8 for Khalidiya
- Over 20.5 fouls45%
- Over 22.5 fouls30%
- Over 24.5 fouls18%
Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.