Probably Football

Matches

AFC Champions League Two (International)

Arkadag vs Gol Gohar

  1. Arkadag44%
  2. Draw26%
  3. Gol Gohar30%

1.17 expected goals for Arkadag

0.93 expected goals for Gol Gohar

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Arkadag has the edge (44%), but not by much: a draw is at 26% and a Gol Gohar win at 30%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Arkadag defence, which lets in 23% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Arkadag attack, which scores 15% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.1 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 48% chance, and both teams scoring, 53%. And about 9.6 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Arkadag

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Arkadag attack−15%
  3. Gol Gohar defence−8%

Expected goals1.17

Gol Gohar

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Gol Gohar attack−11%
  2. Arkadag defence−23%

Expected goals0.93

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals87%
  2. Over 1.5 goals63%
  3. Over 2.5 goals48%
  4. Over 3.5 goals16%
  5. Over 4.5 goals6%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.6 expected

5.0 for Arkadag and 4.6 for Gol Gohar

  1. Over 8.5 corners58%
  2. Over 9.5 corners48%
  3. Over 10.5 corners38%

Cards

3.6 expected

1.6 for Arkadag and 2.0 for Gol Gohar

  1. Over 3.5 cards50%
  2. Over 4.5 cards30%
  3. Over 5.5 cards16%

Shots

24.0 expected

11.8 for Arkadag and 12.2 for Gol Gohar

  1. Over 20.5 shots69%
  2. Over 22.5 shots56%
  3. Over 24.5 shots44%

Fouls

23.8 expected

12.0 for Arkadag and 11.8 for Gol Gohar

  1. Over 20.5 fouls72%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls58%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls43%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.