Probably Football

Matches

AFC Champions League Two (International)

Al Hussein vs Al Shorta

  1. Al Hussein56%
  2. Draw23%
  3. Al Shorta21%

1.78 expected goals for Al Hussein

1.09 expected goals for Al Shorta

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

The model makes Al Hussein the clear favourite: 56% to win. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Al Hussein attack, which scores 22% more goals than an average team. It expects 2.9 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 53% chance, and both teams scoring, 54%. And about 9.9 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Al Hussein

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Al Hussein attack+22%
  3. Al Shorta defence−3%

Expected goals1.78

Al Shorta

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Al Shorta attack−13%
  2. Al Hussein defence−8%

Expected goals1.09

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals94%
  2. Over 1.5 goals79%
  3. Over 2.5 goals53%
  4. Over 3.5 goals32%
  5. Over 4.5 goals16%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.9 expected

4.7 for Al Hussein and 5.2 for Al Shorta

  1. Over 8.5 corners61%
  2. Over 9.5 corners50%
  3. Over 10.5 corners40%

Cards

3.7 expected

1.7 for Al Hussein and 2.0 for Al Shorta

  1. Over 3.5 cards51%
  2. Over 4.5 cards32%
  3. Over 5.5 cards17%

Shots

25.9 expected

12.8 for Al Hussein and 13.2 for Al Shorta

  1. Over 20.5 shots78%
  2. Over 22.5 shots67%
  3. Over 24.5 shots56%

Fouls

20.0 expected

11.9 for Al Hussein and 8.1 for Al Shorta

  1. Over 20.5 fouls44%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls29%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls17%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.