Probably Football

Matches

AFC Champions League Two (International)

East Bengal II vs Al Seeb

  1. East Bengal II36%
  2. Draw25%
  3. Al Seeb39%

1.26 expected goals for East Bengal II

1.31 expected goals for Al Seeb

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

A very open match: no result goes above 39%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Al Seeb defence, which lets in 16% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.6 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 50% chance, and both teams scoring, 54%.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

East Bengal II

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. East Bengal II attack0%
  3. Al Seeb defence−16%

Expected goals1.26

Al Seeb

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Al Seeb attack−5%
  2. East Bengal II defence+2%

Expected goals1.31

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals92%
  2. Over 1.5 goals73%
  3. Over 2.5 goals50%
  4. Over 3.5 goals26%
  5. Over 4.5 goals12%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.