Probably Football

Matches

AFC Champions League Elite (International)

Buriram United vs Kashima

  1. Buriram United19%
  2. Draw22%
  3. Kashima59%

0.85 expected goals for Buriram United

1.80 expected goals for Kashima

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

The model makes Kashima the clear favourite: 59% to win. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Kashima attack, which scores 71% more goals than an average team. Next comes the Kashima defence, which lets in 33% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.7 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 48% chance, and both teams scoring, 50%. And about 9.1 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Buriram United

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Buriram United attack−16%
  3. Kashima defence−33%

Expected goals0.85

Kashima

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Kashima attack+71%
  2. Buriram United defence−23%

Expected goals1.80

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals92%
  2. Over 1.5 goals75%
  3. Over 2.5 goals48%
  4. Over 3.5 goals28%
  5. Over 4.5 goals13%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.1 expected

4.6 for Buriram United and 4.5 for Kashima

  1. Over 8.5 corners53%
  2. Over 9.5 corners42%
  3. Over 10.5 corners33%

Cards

4.2 expected

2.3 for Buriram United and 1.9 for Kashima

  1. Over 3.5 cards61%
  2. Over 4.5 cards42%
  3. Over 5.5 cards25%

Shots

23.8 expected

10.9 for Buriram United and 12.9 for Kashima

  1. Over 20.5 shots67%
  2. Over 22.5 shots55%
  3. Over 24.5 shots43%

Fouls

25.2 expected

13.6 for Buriram United and 11.6 for Kashima

  1. Over 20.5 fouls80%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls68%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls54%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.