Probably Football

Matches

AFC Champions League Elite (International)

Công An Nhân Dân vs Kyoto Sanga

  1. Công An Nhân Dân37%
  2. Draw24%
  3. Kyoto Sanga39%

1.43 expected goals for Công An Nhân Dân

1.56 expected goals for Kyoto Sanga

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

A very open match: no result goes above 39%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Kyoto Sanga attack, which scores 16% more goals than an average team. It expects 3.0 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 53% chance, and both teams scoring, 51%. And about 8.7 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Công An Nhân Dân

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Công An Nhân Dân attack0%
  3. Kyoto Sanga defence−5%

Expected goals1.43

Kyoto Sanga

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Kyoto Sanga attack+16%
  2. Công An Nhân Dân defence−1%

Expected goals1.56

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals94%
  2. Over 1.5 goals80%
  3. Over 2.5 goals53%
  4. Over 3.5 goals35%
  5. Over 4.5 goals18%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

8.7 expected

5.2 for Công An Nhân Dân and 3.5 for Kyoto Sanga

  1. Over 8.5 corners48%
  2. Over 9.5 corners38%
  3. Over 10.5 corners28%

Cards

3.9 expected

1.7 for Công An Nhân Dân and 2.2 for Kyoto Sanga

  1. Over 3.5 cards55%
  2. Over 4.5 cards35%
  3. Over 5.5 cards20%

Shots

26.4 expected

16.6 for Công An Nhân Dân and 9.8 for Kyoto Sanga

  1. Over 20.5 shots79%
  2. Over 22.5 shots69%
  3. Over 24.5 shots57%

Fouls

24.3 expected

10.1 for Công An Nhân Dân and 14.2 for Kyoto Sanga

  1. Over 20.5 fouls75%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls61%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls47%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.