Probably Football

Matches

AFC Champions League Elite (International)

Vissel Kobe vs Ratchaburi

  1. Vissel Kobe66%
  2. Draw20%
  3. Ratchaburi14%

1.93 expected goals for Vissel Kobe

0.81 expected goals for Ratchaburi

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

The model makes Vissel Kobe the clear favourite: 66% to win. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Vissel Kobe defence, which lets in 40% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Vissel Kobe attack, which scores 32% more goals than an average team. It expects 2.7 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 50% chance, and both teams scoring, 50%. And about 11.1 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Vissel Kobe

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Vissel Kobe attack+32%
  3. Ratchaburi defence−3%

Expected goals1.93

Ratchaburi

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Ratchaburi attack−1%
  2. Vissel Kobe defence−40%

Expected goals0.81

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals93%
  2. Over 1.5 goals76%
  3. Over 2.5 goals50%
  4. Over 3.5 goals30%
  5. Over 4.5 goals14%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

11.1 expected

6.0 for Vissel Kobe and 5.0 for Ratchaburi

  1. Over 8.5 corners71%
  2. Over 9.5 corners61%
  3. Over 10.5 corners52%

Cards

3.5 expected

1.3 for Vissel Kobe and 2.2 for Ratchaburi

  1. Over 3.5 cards46%
  2. Over 4.5 cards27%
  3. Over 5.5 cards14%

Shots

28.6 expected

17.2 for Vissel Kobe and 11.4 for Ratchaburi

  1. Over 20.5 shots86%
  2. Over 22.5 shots78%
  3. Over 24.5 shots69%

Fouls

20.6 expected

10.1 for Vissel Kobe and 10.5 for Ratchaburi

  1. Over 20.5 fouls49%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls34%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls21%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.