Probably Football

Matches

AFC Champions League Elite (International)

Kashiwa Reysol vs Daejeon Citizen

  1. Kashiwa Reysol69%
  2. Draw17%
  3. Daejeon Citizen14%

2.29 expected goals for Kashiwa Reysol

0.96 expected goals for Daejeon Citizen

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

The model makes Kashiwa Reysol the clear favourite: 69% to win. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Kashiwa Reysol attack, which scores 65% more goals than an average team. Next comes the Kashiwa Reysol defence, which lets in 25% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 3.2 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 57% chance, and both teams scoring, 51%. And about 8.9 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Kashiwa Reysol

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Kashiwa Reysol attack+65%
  3. Daejeon Citizen defence−8%

Expected goals2.29

Daejeon Citizen

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Daejeon Citizen attack−7%
  2. Kashiwa Reysol defence−25%

Expected goals0.96

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals96%
  2. Over 1.5 goals84%
  3. Over 2.5 goals57%
  4. Over 3.5 goals41%
  5. Over 4.5 goals23%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

8.9 expected

4.8 for Kashiwa Reysol and 4.1 for Daejeon Citizen

  1. Over 8.5 corners51%
  2. Over 9.5 corners40%
  3. Over 10.5 corners31%

Cards

3.2 expected

1.2 for Kashiwa Reysol and 2.0 for Daejeon Citizen

  1. Over 3.5 cards40%
  2. Over 4.5 cards22%
  3. Over 5.5 cards10%

Shots

21.8 expected

11.5 for Kashiwa Reysol and 10.2 for Daejeon Citizen

  1. Over 20.5 shots56%
  2. Over 22.5 shots43%
  3. Over 24.5 shots31%

Fouls

21.4 expected

10.8 for Kashiwa Reysol and 10.6 for Daejeon Citizen

  1. Over 20.5 fouls55%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls39%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls26%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.