Probably Football

Matches

AFC Champions League Elite (International)

Jeonbuk Motors vs Johor Darul Takzim FC

  1. Jeonbuk Motors45%
  2. Draw26%
  3. Johor Darul Takzim FC29%

1.41 expected goals for Jeonbuk Motors

1.14 expected goals for Johor Darul Takzim FC

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Jeonbuk Motors has the edge (45%), but not by much: a draw is at 26% and a Johor Darul Takzim FC win at 29%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Johor Darul Takzim FC defence, which lets in 27% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Jeonbuk Motors defence, which lets in 25% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.6 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 47% chance, and both teams scoring, 51%. And about 9.6 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Jeonbuk Motors

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Jeonbuk Motors attack+28%
  3. Johor Darul Takzim FC defence−27%

Expected goals1.41

Johor Darul Takzim FC

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Johor Darul Takzim FC attack+12%
  2. Jeonbuk Motors defence−25%

Expected goals1.14

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals92%
  2. Over 1.5 goals73%
  3. Over 2.5 goals47%
  4. Over 3.5 goals25%
  5. Over 4.5 goals12%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.6 expected

5.4 for Jeonbuk Motors and 4.1 for Johor Darul Takzim FC

  1. Over 8.5 corners58%
  2. Over 9.5 corners47%
  3. Over 10.5 corners37%

Cards

3.9 expected

1.3 for Jeonbuk Motors and 2.6 for Johor Darul Takzim FC

  1. Over 3.5 cards55%
  2. Over 4.5 cards35%
  3. Over 5.5 cards20%

Shots

25.0 expected

11.5 for Jeonbuk Motors and 13.5 for Johor Darul Takzim FC

  1. Over 20.5 shots74%
  2. Over 22.5 shots62%
  3. Over 24.5 shots50%

Fouls

24.4 expected

11.9 for Jeonbuk Motors and 12.5 for Johor Darul Takzim FC

  1. Over 20.5 fouls76%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls62%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls47%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.