Probably Football

Matches

AFC Champions League Elite (International)

Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Ain

  1. Al-Ittihad FC50%
  2. Draw22%
  3. Al Ain28%

1.84 expected goals for Al-Ittihad FC

1.41 expected goals for Al Ain

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Al-Ittihad FC has the edge (50%), but not by much: a draw is at 22% and a Al Ain win at 28%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Al-Ittihad FC attack, which scores 81% more goals than an average team. Next comes the Al Ain attack, which scores 76% more goals than an average team. It expects 3.2 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 57% chance, and both teams scoring, 51%. And about 10.2 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Al-Ittihad FC

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Al-Ittihad FC attack+81%
  3. Al Ain defence−33%

Expected goals1.84

Al Ain

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Al Ain attack+76%
  2. Al-Ittihad FC defence−41%

Expected goals1.41

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals96%
  2. Over 1.5 goals84%
  3. Over 2.5 goals57%
  4. Over 3.5 goals41%
  5. Over 4.5 goals23%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.2 expected

5.0 for Al-Ittihad FC and 5.2 for Al Ain

  1. Over 8.5 corners63%
  2. Over 9.5 corners53%
  3. Over 10.5 corners43%

Cards

3.9 expected

1.6 for Al-Ittihad FC and 2.2 for Al Ain

  1. Over 3.5 cards54%
  2. Over 4.5 cards34%
  3. Over 5.5 cards19%

Shots

28.8 expected

14.5 for Al-Ittihad FC and 14.3 for Al Ain

  1. Over 20.5 shots87%
  2. Over 22.5 shots79%
  3. Over 24.5 shots70%

Fouls

20.2 expected

8.4 for Al-Ittihad FC and 11.8 for Al Ain

  1. Over 20.5 fouls46%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls31%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls19%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.