Probably Football

Matches

AFC Champions League Elite (International)

Wednesday 28 October, 05:00

Final score

Kashima3-0Pohang Steelers

The model's most likely result happened: a Kashima win (68%).

Kashima vs Pohang Steelers

  1. Kashima68%
  2. Draw18%
  3. Pohang Steelers14%

2.12 expected goals for Kashima

0.85 expected goals for Pohang Steelers

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

The model makes Kashima the clear favourite: 68% to win. It expects 3.0 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 53% chance, and both teams scoring, 50%. And about 8.2 corners.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals94%It happened
  2. Over 1.5 goals80%It happened
  3. Over 2.5 goals53%It happened
  4. Over 3.5 goals35%It did not happen
  5. Over 4.5 goals18%It did not happen

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

8.2 expected

4.1 for Kashima and 4.2 for Pohang Steelers

  1. Over 8.5 corners43%
  2. Over 9.5 corners33%
  3. Over 10.5 corners24%

Cards

3.6 expected

1.3 for Kashima and 2.4 for Pohang Steelers

  1. Over 3.5 cards49%
  2. Over 4.5 cards30%
  3. Over 5.5 cards16%

Shots

25.2 expected

14.1 for Kashima and 11.1 for Pohang Steelers

  1. Over 20.5 shots75%
  2. Over 22.5 shots63%
  3. Over 24.5 shots51%

Fouls

26.3 expected

13.0 for Kashima and 13.4 for Pohang Steelers

  1. Over 20.5 fouls85%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls74%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls61%

Saved before kickoff, on 27 October at 06:57 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.