Probably Football

Matches

AFC Champions League Elite (International)

Monday 26 October, 13:15

Final score

Al Quwa Al Jawiya1-0Pakhtakor

The model gave this result 29%. Its most likely result was a Pakhtakor win (40%).

Al Quwa Al Jawiya vs Pakhtakor

  1. Al Quwa Al Jawiya29%
  2. Draw31%
  3. Pakhtakor40%

0.91 expected goals for Al Quwa Al Jawiya

1.19 expected goals for Pakhtakor

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

Pakhtakor has the edge (40%), but not by much: a draw is at 31% and a Al Quwa Al Jawiya win at 29%. It expects 2.1 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 39% chance, and both teams scoring, 49%. And about 8.9 corners.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals87%It happened
  2. Over 1.5 goals63%It did not happen
  3. Over 2.5 goals39%It did not happen
  4. Over 3.5 goals16%It did not happen
  5. Over 4.5 goals6%It did not happen

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

8.9 expected

4.6 for Al Quwa Al Jawiya and 4.3 for Pakhtakor

  1. Over 8.5 corners51%
  2. Over 9.5 corners40%
  3. Over 10.5 corners31%

Cards

3.6 expected

1.5 for Al Quwa Al Jawiya and 2.0 for Pakhtakor

  1. Over 3.5 cards48%
  2. Over 4.5 cards29%
  3. Over 5.5 cards15%

Shots

23.6 expected

10.3 for Al Quwa Al Jawiya and 13.2 for Pakhtakor

  1. Over 20.5 shots66%
  2. Over 22.5 shots54%
  3. Over 24.5 shots42%

Fouls

24.4 expected

11.1 for Al Quwa Al Jawiya and 13.4 for Pakhtakor

  1. Over 20.5 fouls76%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls62%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls48%

Saved before kickoff, on 25 October at 07:17 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.