Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Gharafa

Al-Ahli Jeddah91%
Draw5%
Al-Gharafa4%

3.71 expected goals for Al-Ahli Jeddah

0.69 expected goals for Al-Gharafa

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

The model makes Al-Ahli Jeddah the clear favourite: 91% to win. It expects 4.4 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 68% chance, and both teams scoring, 50%. And about 9.7 corners.

Goals

Over 0.5 goals99%It happened
Over 1.5 goals94%It happened
Over 2.5 goals68%It happened
Over 3.5 goals64%It did not happen
Over 4.5 goals45%It did not happen

Both teams score50%
Al-Ahli Jeddah or draw96%
Draw or Al-Gharafa9%
No draw96%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.7 expected

5.3 for Al-Ahli Jeddah and 4.4 for Al-Gharafa

Over 8.5 corners59%
Over 9.5 corners48%
Over 10.5 corners38%

Cards

4.0 expected

1.5 for Al-Ahli Jeddah and 2.5 for Al-Gharafa

Over 3.5 cards56%
Over 4.5 cards37%
Over 5.5 cards21%

Shots

25.5 expected

16.6 for Al-Ahli Jeddah and 8.9 for Al-Gharafa

Over 20.5 shots75%
Over 22.5 shots65%
Over 24.5 shots53%

Fouls

25.4 expected

11.9 for Al-Ahli Jeddah and 13.5 for Al-Gharafa

Over 20.5 fouls81%
Over 22.5 fouls69%
Over 24.5 fouls55%

Saved before kickoff, on 25 October at 07:17 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.