Probably Football

Matches

Segunda División (Chile)

General Velásquez vs Deportes Rengo

  1. General Velásquez40%
  2. Draw25%
  3. Deportes Rengo35%

1.48 expected goals for General Velásquez

1.33 expected goals for Deportes Rengo

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

A very open match: no result goes above 40%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the General Velásquez attack, which scores 31% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Deportes Rengo defence, which lets in 41% more goals than an average team. It expects 2.8 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 50% chance, and both teams scoring, 53%.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

General Velásquez

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. General Velásquez attack−31%
  3. Deportes Rengo defence+41%

Expected goals1.48

Deportes Rengo

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Deportes Rengo attack−7%
  2. General Velásquez defence+5%

Expected goals1.33

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals93%
  2. Over 1.5 goals78%
  3. Over 2.5 goals50%
  4. Over 3.5 goals31%
  5. Over 4.5 goals15%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.