Probably Football

Matches

FA WSL (England)

West Ham W vs Liverpool W

  1. West Ham W25%
  2. Draw25%
  3. Liverpool W50%

1.05 expected goals for West Ham W

1.46 expected goals for Liverpool W

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Liverpool W has the edge (50%), but not by much: a draw is at 25% and a West Ham W win at 25%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the West Ham W attack, which scores 19% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Liverpool W defence, which lets in 14% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.5 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 51% chance, and both teams scoring, 49%. And about 9.3 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

West Ham W

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. West Ham W attack−19%
  3. Liverpool W defence−14%

Expected goals1.05

Liverpool W

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Liverpool W attack−5%
  2. West Ham W defence+13%

Expected goals1.46

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals91%
  2. Over 1.5 goals72%
  3. Over 2.5 goals51%
  4. Over 3.5 goals24%
  5. Over 4.5 goals11%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.3 expected

4.8 for West Ham W and 4.5 for Liverpool W

  1. Over 8.5 corners55%
  2. Over 9.5 corners44%
  3. Over 10.5 corners34%

Cards

3.3 expected

1.3 for West Ham W and 2.1 for Liverpool W

  1. Over 3.5 cards43%
  2. Over 4.5 cards25%
  3. Over 5.5 cards12%

Shots

24.2 expected

10.1 for West Ham W and 14.1 for Liverpool W

  1. Over 20.5 shots69%
  2. Over 22.5 shots57%
  3. Over 24.5 shots45%

Fouls

22.5 expected

12.4 for West Ham W and 10.1 for Liverpool W

  1. Over 20.5 fouls64%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls49%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls34%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.