Probably Football

Matches

FA WSL (England)

London City Lionesses W vs Manchester City W

  1. London City Lionesses W20%
  2. Draw17%
  3. Manchester City W63%

1.38 expected goals for London City Lionesses W

2.46 expected goals for Manchester City W

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

The model makes Manchester City W the clear favourite: 63% to win. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Manchester City W attack, which scores 108% more goals than an average team. Next comes the Manchester City W defence, which lets in 33% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 3.8 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 66% chance, and both teams scoring, 53%. And about 10.0 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

London City Lionesses W

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. London City Lionesses W attack+36%
  3. Manchester City W defence−33%

Expected goals1.38

Manchester City W

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Manchester City W attack+108%
  2. London City Lionesses W defence−13%

Expected goals2.46

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals97%
  2. Over 1.5 goals90%
  3. Over 2.5 goals66%
  4. Over 3.5 goals54%
  5. Over 4.5 goals34%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.0 expected

5.1 for London City Lionesses W and 5.0 for Manchester City W

  1. Over 8.5 corners62%
  2. Over 9.5 corners52%
  3. Over 10.5 corners42%

Cards

3.1 expected

1.2 for London City Lionesses W and 1.9 for Manchester City W

  1. Over 3.5 cards38%
  2. Over 4.5 cards21%
  3. Over 5.5 cards10%

Shots

25.5 expected

13.7 for London City Lionesses W and 11.7 for Manchester City W

  1. Over 20.5 shots76%
  2. Over 22.5 shots65%
  3. Over 24.5 shots53%

Fouls

18.6 expected

9.4 for London City Lionesses W and 9.1 for Manchester City W

  1. Over 20.5 fouls32%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls19%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls10%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.