Probably Football

Matches

FA WSL (England)

Arsenal W vs Aston Villa W

  1. Arsenal W77%
  2. Draw15%
  3. Aston Villa W8%

2.63 expected goals for Arsenal W

0.78 expected goals for Aston Villa W

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

The model makes Arsenal W the clear favourite: 77% to win. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Arsenal W defence, which lets in 45% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Arsenal W attack, which scores 39% more goals than an average team. It expects 3.4 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 61% chance, and both teams scoring, 49%. And about 10.3 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Arsenal W

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Arsenal W attack+39%
  3. Aston Villa W defence+26%

Expected goals2.63

Aston Villa W

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Aston Villa W attack+6%
  2. Arsenal W defence−45%

Expected goals0.78

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals96%
  2. Over 1.5 goals86%
  3. Over 2.5 goals61%
  4. Over 3.5 goals44%
  5. Over 4.5 goals26%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.3 expected

6.7 for Arsenal W and 3.7 for Aston Villa W

  1. Over 8.5 corners65%
  2. Over 9.5 corners55%
  3. Over 10.5 corners45%

Cards

3.2 expected

1.2 for Arsenal W and 2.0 for Aston Villa W

  1. Over 3.5 cards40%
  2. Over 4.5 cards22%
  3. Over 5.5 cards11%

Shots

33.1 expected

23.9 for Arsenal W and 9.2 for Aston Villa W

  1. Over 20.5 shots93%
  2. Over 22.5 shots88%
  3. Over 24.5 shots81%

Fouls

19.2 expected

10.0 for Arsenal W and 9.2 for Aston Villa W

  1. Over 20.5 fouls37%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls23%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls13%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.