Probably Football

Matches

FA WSL (England)

Sunday 25 October, 09:00

Final score

Crystal Palace W1-3Chelsea W

The model's most likely result happened: a Chelsea W win (91%).

Crystal Palace W vs Chelsea W

  1. Crystal Palace W3%
  2. Draw6%
  3. Chelsea W91%

0.59 expected goals for Crystal Palace W

3.87 expected goals for Chelsea W

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

The model makes Chelsea W the clear favourite: 91% to win. It expects 4.5 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 71% chance, and both teams scoring, 45%. And about 9.9 corners.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals99%It happened
  2. Over 1.5 goals94%It happened
  3. Over 2.5 goals71%It happened
  4. Over 3.5 goals65%It happened
  5. Over 4.5 goals46%It did not happen

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.9 expected

4.8 for Crystal Palace W and 5.0 for Chelsea W

  1. Over 8.5 corners61%
  2. Over 9.5 corners50%
  3. Over 10.5 corners40%

Cards

3.0 expected

1.2 for Crystal Palace W and 1.8 for Chelsea W

  1. Over 3.5 cards35%
  2. Over 4.5 cards18%
  3. Over 5.5 cards8%

Shots

28.0 expected

11.5 for Crystal Palace W and 16.5 for Chelsea W

  1. Over 20.5 shots84%
  2. Over 22.5 shots76%
  3. Over 24.5 shots66%

Fouls

20.0 expected

10.8 for Crystal Palace W and 9.1 for Chelsea W

  1. Over 20.5 fouls44%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls29%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls17%

Saved before kickoff, on 25 October at 07:17 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.