Probably Football

Matches

Division 1 (Saudi Arabia)

Al-Adalah vs Al Orubah

  1. Al-Adalah23%
  2. Draw29%
  3. Al Orubah48%

1.10 expected goals for Al-Adalah

1.47 expected goals for Al Orubah

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Al Orubah has the edge (48%), but not by much: a draw is at 29% and a Al-Adalah win at 23%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Al Orubah defence, which lets in 21% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Al-Adalah defence, which lets in 24% more goals than an average team. It expects 2.6 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 46% chance, and both teams scoring, 53%.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Al-Adalah

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Al-Adalah attack−7%
  3. Al Orubah defence−21%

Expected goals1.10

Al Orubah

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Al Orubah attack−13%
  2. Al-Adalah defence+24%

Expected goals1.47

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals92%
  2. Over 1.5 goals73%
  3. Over 2.5 goals46%
  4. Over 3.5 goals26%
  5. Over 4.5 goals12%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.