Probably Football

Matches

Division 1 (Saudi Arabia)

Al-Raed vs Al Wehda Club

  1. Al-Raed35%
  2. Draw27%
  3. Al Wehda Club38%

1.66 expected goals for Al-Raed

1.64 expected goals for Al Wehda Club

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

A very open match: no result goes above 38%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Al Wehda Club attack, which scores 23% more goals than an average team. It expects 3.3 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 58% chance, and both teams scoring, 58%.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Al-Raed

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Al-Raed attack+3%
  3. Al Wehda Club defence+6%

Expected goals1.65

Al Wehda Club

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Al Wehda Club attack+23%
  2. Al-Raed defence−2%

Expected goals1.64

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals96%
  2. Over 1.5 goals85%
  3. Over 2.5 goals58%
  4. Over 3.5 goals42%
  5. Over 4.5 goals24%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.