Probably Football

Matches

Division 1 (Saudi Arabia)

Al Jeel vs Al Najma

  1. Al Jeel17%
  2. Draw29%
  3. Al Najma54%

0.92 expected goals for Al Jeel

1.50 expected goals for Al Najma

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Al Najma has the edge (54%), but not by much: a draw is at 29% and a Al Jeel win at 17%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Al Jeel attack, which scores 35% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.4 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 44% chance, and both teams scoring, 52%.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Al Jeel

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Al Jeel attack−35%
  3. Al Najma defence−5%

Expected goals0.92

Al Najma

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Al Najma attack+9%
  2. Al Jeel defence+1%

Expected goals1.50

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals91%
  2. Over 1.5 goals70%
  3. Over 2.5 goals44%
  4. Over 3.5 goals23%
  5. Over 4.5 goals10%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.